What will I think the mana:USD exchange rate is, as of 2026-07-01?

Prediction market on manifold. No firm methodology at this time. I won't bet until / unless there is one; it might be kinda vibesy. Buckets are left inclusive, right exclusive, so a price of exactly 160 M/$ resolves to the 160-200 bucket. If there's uncertainty I will default to averaging out and taking the central estimate as best I can. I will consider things like: Mana purchase price available in the store, both current and recent sales Apparent mana purchase patterns (did a sale increase sales?) Cost of features available for either dollars or mana (for example, if you can buy a subscription with either currency) Implied exchange rate from charity giveaways The above list is not intended to be exhaustive. Some recent reference points: Black friday sale had M120000/$750 available, for a rate of M160/$. This didn't seem to generate a huge sales spike. Charity currently lets you buy tickets at 254/M100, with a pool of 2.9e6 sold and $1000 for the giveaway. So the current implied price is M1153/$.

24h Volume: $17.243. Liquidity: $1,000. Resolves: 6/30/2026.