Will the 2026 Alberta independence referendum pass?

Prediction market on metaculus. On October 19, 2026, the Canadian province of Alberta is scheduled to hold the [2026 Alberta independence referendum](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_Alberta_independence_referendum). Alberta premier Danielle Smith [said](https://www.alberta.ca/premiers-address-to-the-province) in a May 2026 official address announcing the plebiscite that the favored wording of the question would be:  > Should Alberta remain a province of Canada or should the Government of Alberta commence the legal process required under the Canadian Constitution to hold a binding provincial referendum on whether or not Alberta should separate from Canada? Notably, the referendum would not lead to the immediate secession of Alberta from Ottawa's rule but rather would start the process toward a second referendum that could do so.  An [Ipsos poll](https://www.ipsos.com/en-ca/support-independence-alberta-reaches-levels-similar-quebec) from January 2026 found 28% of Albertans said they would vote to begin the process of separating from Canada. Although this consisted of only about 3 in 10 Albertans, Ipsos noted that this was similar to the level of support in Quebec, which itself has a long history of separatist activism. In April 2026, Pollara released a [poll](https://www.pollara.com/support-for-alberta-separatism-rises-to-27-a-5-year-high/) similarly finding that 27% of Albertans supported independence, though also noting that this was the highest level of support it had recorded in its five years of polling.  Alberta has abundant oil and gas resources, highest of any Canadian province, and it has been locked in years-long disputes with the Canadian federal government over further development and distribution of Alberta's oil and gas. In May 2026 for example, an agreement was reached to move forward on a new oil pipeline to Canada's west coast, but the two sides [remain](https://calgarysbusiness.ca/business/ottawa-could-still-strangle-canadas-next-pipeline/) in conflict over regulations and climate obligations which could still delay the project. 

Resolves: 10/21/2026.