Will Alex Saab enter a guilty plea in his US federal criminal case before May 31, 2026?

Prediction market on metaculus. Alex Nain Saab Morán, a Colombian businessman and longtime alleged financial operator for Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro, was deported from Venezuela to U.S. custody on May 16, 2026 and transferred to federal court in the Southern District of Florida (Miami) to face criminal proceedings. The U.S. case against Saab centers on a money-laundering conspiracy charge (18 U.S.C. § 1956(h)) tied to allegations he paid bribes to Venezuelan officials and laundered approximately $350 million through the U.S. financial system in connection with Venezuelan state contracts (housing and CLAP food-import programs). Saab was previously extradited from Cabo Verde to Miami in October 2021, where he pleaded not guilty to the conspiracy charge. That case was dismissed in December 2023 when President Biden pardoned him as part of a prisoner-swap deal. After returning to Venezuela, Saab served as Minister of Industry until early 2026 before being handed back to the United States in May 2026. Saab had previously cooperated with the U.S. Drug Enforcement Administration starting in June 2018, forfeiting roughly $10–12 million and admitting to bribery, but failed to surrender to U.S. authorities as agreed by May 30, 2019. U.S. prosecutors and observers have flagged him as a potential key cooperating witness against Maduro, who is currently detained in Brooklyn awaiting prosecution in the Southern District of New York on narcoterrorism charges. A change of plea (typically a Rule 11 guilty plea) or a publicly filed plea/cooperation agreement would appear as a docket entry in the federal court handling his case. Federal defendants in high-profile cases typically plead not guilty at initial arraignment, with any guilty plea coming weeks or months later, though Saab's prior cooperation history and U.S. interest in using him against Maduro create unusual uncertainty. `{"format": "llm_question", "info": {"rating": {"quality": 3, "ambiguity": 4, "resolvability": 4, "passes": true}}}`

Resolves: 5/30/2026.