Will SpaceX Starship achieve a controlled soft splashdown of the upper stage (Ship) on a flight test launched between May 17, 2026 and May 31, 2026?

Prediction market on metaculus. SpaceX's Starship is a fully reusable two-stage super-heavy launch vehicle being developed at Starbase, Texas. A central engineering challenge has been getting the upper stage ("Ship") through atmospheric reentry and back to a controlled soft landing — first via targeted ocean splashdowns, eventually via a "Mechazilla" tower catch. Recent history: - Flight 11 (October 2025) was the most successful Ship test to date: Ship 38 completed a coast phase, an in-space Raptor relight, an experimental "dynamic banking" reentry over the Indian Ocean (with some heat-shield tiles intentionally removed), and a landing burn followed by a soft splashdown within meters of its target. - Flight 12 is currently scheduled by SpaceX for May 19, 2026 from Starbase Pad 2 (window 15:30–17:00 PT). It is the debut flight of Starship V3 hardware, with upgraded Raptor engines, and is planned as "expended" (no tower catch) with both Booster 19 and Ship 39 targeting water landings. Ship 39's profile includes deploying ~22 Starlink mass simulators, an in-space Raptor relight, and a more aggressive "hook" reentry trajectory ending in a targeted Indian Ocean splashdown. - Elon Musk has stated SpaceX will only attempt a Ship tower catch after two near-perfect ocean splashdowns; Flight 12's splashdown is intended to be the second. Risks to a successful Ship splashdown include first-flight V3 hardware issues, the new pad, the more aggressive reentry profile, and the historical pattern of Starship schedule slips. The SpaceX launches page (https://www.spacex.com/launches) lists upcoming and completed flights, and SpaceX publishes outcome statements via its website and official X account; major outlets and Wikipedia's Starship flight-test article track outcomes. `{"format": "llm_question", "info": {"rating": {"quality": 3, "ambiguity": 3, "resolvability": 4, "passes": true}}}`

Resolves: 5/31/2026.