Which lab will be first to get to 20 hours on the METR graph?

Prediction market on manifold. Will use values from the graph here: https://metr.org/blog/2025-03-19-measuring-ai-ability-to-complete-long-tasks/ 50% time-horizon, using latest version of the Time Horizon measurement available at the time (i.e. would be 1.1 unless they did a new one)

24h Volume: $77. Liquidity: $1,000. Resolves: 12/31/2026.