Will Iran successfully attack the mainland US before March 2027

Prediction market on manifold. This market resolves YES if Iran successfully conducts a direct attack on the mainland United States (the 50 states) resulting in at least 10 casualties before March, the 1st, 2027. Casualties include deaths and injuries. The attack must be carried out by Iranian state forces, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), or entities directly controlled by the Iranian government. Update 2026-03-07 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Attacks by Iranian-supported groups (e.g., Hezbollah, Houthis, Hamas) will count as YES if the group states the attack is meant as revenge for Iran. Update 2026-03-07 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Attacks by Iranian-funded/directed groups (e.g., Hezbollah, Houthis, Hamas) may count as YES if the attack was funded and directed by Iran. Attacks by those groups for other reasons (e.g., related to Gaza) would not count. The creator acknowledges this distinction may be difficult to apply and is open to suggestions.

24h Volume: $100. Liquidity: $1,000. Resolves: 2/28/2027.