Will China, Iran, Saudi Arabia, or Russia become a democracy first?

Prediction market on manifold. As classified by their polity score or V-DEM score https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Polity_data_series#Scores_for_2018 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/V-Dem_Democracy_Indices Update 2025-11-15 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): If both Polity score and V-DEM score are discontinued, the creator will update the market to use other democracy scores for resolution.

24h Volume: $102. Liquidity: $1,000. Resolves: 12/31/2049.