Will credible evidence show OpenAI paid ≥100 NYC households to install indoor 360° cameras for home-activity recording?

Prediction market on manifold. Inspired by this tweet: https://x.com/loffredojeremy/status/2057911236361179575?s=46 Description By December 31, 2026, will credible public evidence show that OpenAI, or a contractor/vendor acting on OpenAI’s behalf, paid at least 100 households or families in New York City to install indoor 360-degree cameras in private homes to record routine household activities such as cooking, cleaning, washing dishes, or similar domestic tasks, for use in AI, robotics, smart-home, or hardware development? Resolution criteria Resolve YES if, by market close, credible public evidence establishes all of the following: OpenAI involvement: OpenAI directly ran, funded, commissioned, or materially directed the program; or a contractor/vendor did so on OpenAI’s behalf. NYC households: The program involved at least 100 private households/families located in New York City. Indoor 360° cameras: Participants installed or hosted 360-degree cameras or substantially equivalent panoramic indoor video recording devices inside their homes. Routine household activity recording: The recordings captured ordinary domestic activities such as cooking, cleaning, vacuuming, laundry, dishwashing, childcare, organizing, or similar home behavior. AI/product development purpose: The data was collected for AI model training/evaluation, robotics, smart-home, ambient-computing, or hardware/product-development purposes. Resolve NO if these conditions are not met by market close. Accepted evidence Evidence sufficient for YES includes at least one of: Reporting from a reputable news organization with independent sourcing. Public legal, regulatory, procurement, or court documents. A published participant consent form, contract, vendor agreement, job listing, or internal document that is authenticated or reported by a reputable outlet. A public statement from OpenAI or a clearly identified vendor confirming the program. Not sufficient for YES Do not resolve YES based only on: Anonymous social media posts. “A friend told me” anecdotes. Screenshots without provenance. Generic OpenAI hardware rumors. Evidence of household video-data collection by another AI company unless OpenAI involvement is established. Evidence of OpenAI collecting video data in general, unless the NYC household + indoor 360° camera + ≥100 household conditions are met. Edge cases If the program used non-360 fixed cameras, resolve NO, unless the setup was functionally panoramic/room-scale and reported as such. If fewer than 100 NYC households are confirmed, resolve NO. If OpenAI only bought a third-party dataset after collection and did not commission, fund, or direct the collection, resolve NO. If the program happened outside NYC, resolve NO. If the evidence confirms a similar OpenAI home-recording program but not the 360° camera detail, resolve NO for this market. Close date December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET Resolution note The intended question is not whether OpenAI is developing hardware or smart-home products. It is whether this specific claim about a large NYC in-home 360° camera data-collection program is credibly verified.

24h Volume: $602. Liquidity: $1,000. Resolves: 1/1/2027.