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Prediction market on manifold. Following Tesla's recent "We Robot" event on 10/10/2024, there has been mixed communication from Tesla about when or whether or not Unsupervised Full Self Driving would ever be possible on Tesla's HW3 self driving technology. If you think Unsupervised FSD will never be available on HW3, select 2024+ Unsupervised FSD refers to a version of Tesla's FSD that will allow the driver to not pay attention entirely on public roads, like be asleep or working on something else. "Availability" is when the first non-tesla employee is able to use it on their own vehicles that aren't owned by Tesla, and it's usage is credibly demonstrated in video. Although there will be only one YES resolution, this market is presented as multiple choice so that years can resolve NO as they pass. (Too bad Manafold depreciated their numeric market format 😭) Update 2026-02-23 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Hardware upgrades do not count. If Tesla retrofits HW3 vehicles with newer hardware (e.g., HW5), this will not qualify for resolution. The vehicle must be running on hardware that Tesla still refers to as HW3.
24h Volume: $100. Liquidity: $1,000. Resolves: 1/1/2035.