Will the German AfD be part of a ruling coalition on state (Bundesland) level by the end of 2026?

Prediction market on manifold. There needs to be a formal coalition, e.g. tolerating a minority government does not count. I will follow the mainstream media consensus on whether a formal coalition exists. Generally, this involves things like a coalition contract and a division of the cabinet positions. There are currently six elections planned on state level in this timeframe (https://www.wahlrecht.de/termine.htm) and also some states where the state of the parliament seems somewhat unstable after the elections last year. Note that coalition here requires at least one other party working with the AfD. If the AfD receives an absolute majority in one of the elections and can rule without a coalition, then this also resolves NO.

24h Volume: $66. Liquidity: $1,000. Resolves: 12/31/2026.