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Prediction market on metaculus. The Metaculus Cup Summer 2026 launched with a base prize pool of \$5,000. According to the [tournament announcement](https://www.metaculus.com/notebooks/43359/metaculus-cup-summer-2026-with-dylan-matthews/), an additional \$2,500 will be added to the prize pool if the Community Prediction outperforms Dylan Matthews, a guest forecaster, over the course of the tournament. The same announcement also describes Dylan as follows: > Dylan Matthews is an associate program officer for the Abundance & Growth Fund at Coefficient Giving. He spent more than a decade as a policy journalist, most of it at Vox, where he was an original staff writer and cofounded [Future Perfect](https://www.vox.com/future-perfect) to cover global health, pandemic prevention, anti-poverty work, and philanthropic ethics. Before Vox, he covered tax, budget, and economic policy at the Washington Post's Wonkblog, with earlier bylines in The New Republic and Slate. In the [Metaculus Cup Spring 2026](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/41508/cp-beats-nathan-young-in-the-spring-2026-cup/), the Community faced off against—and, contrary to predictions, was defeated by—Nathan Young.
Resolves: 9/3/2026.