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Prediction market on manifold. Resolves according to this Metaculus question: (https://www.metaculus.com/questions/embed/18546)If that question is unavailable, I'll do my best to resolve in the same spirit. Individual questions may resolve some time after the date passes, depending on conditions and my judgment; sometimes Metaculus resolves to dates in the past and I don't want to have a re-resolution situation.
24h Volume: $32.679. Liquidity: $1,000. Resolves: 1/30/2030.