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Prediction market on manifold. Recently, many have claimed that AI coding tools will soon make software developers obsolete. According to the US Bureau of Labor Statistics, the number of people in the United States employed as software developers in 2021 was 1,364,180. The figure for 2022 has yet to be published, but is scheduled to be published later this year. This question resolves to YES if the number of people employed as "software developers" in the United States declines by more than 15% from 2023 to 2028 as determined by data published by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). Otherwise, it resolves to NO. In case the BLS declines to publish the relevant figures before 2030, this question resolves to N/A. If the BLS changes the definition of "software developer" substantially, or their method of counting those employed changes substantially, this question will also resolve to N/A, and I will judge whether the change was "substantial" at my sole discretion. The BLS provides this footnote: "Estimates for detailed occupations do not sum to the totals because the totals include occupations not shown separately. Estimates do not include self-employed workers."
24h Volume: $60.896. Liquidity: $1,000. Resolves: 6/1/2029.