Market analysis, product updates, and trading strategies from the Blockcircle team.
The Security Market Line turns CAPM into a chart you can actually plot your holdings on. Here is how to build it from real data and read the vertical gaps as a rough cheapness signal.
The leftmost point on the efficient frontier ignores returns entirely and only cares about steadiness. Here is what that gets you, why it holds weird assets, and when it is the wrong default.
A win rate counts trades that closed. A whale that books its winners and holds its losers looks excellent for as long as it refuses to sell, and the Active toggle is where you catch it.
Two contracts can look identical and still resolve on different sources, dates, or edge cases. Here is how I build a resolution diff before pairing them, so an aggregated view flags real twins.
The normalisation window is chosen far more often than it is justified, and the choice moves fair value further than any other input. A rule set before the answer is visible, plus a band around it.
A practitioner's read on bonding-curve progress, unique buyers, and migration velocity, and how to tell an organic launchpad token from one funder cycling wallets before you commit size.
Momentum, whale, insider and political signals fire on different clocks. Here is a scoring model that normalizes each one, decays it over time, and merges the pile into one queue you work top-down.
The daily-close event study inherits assumptions a 24/7 market does not supply. Rebuilding it means estimation and event windows measured in hours, a rolling benchmark, and hour-of-week effects treated as structure.
RSI, stochastics, and Williams %R mostly measure the same thing. Stack them in a composite and you triple the weight of one idea. Here is how to catch it with a correlation matrix.
Most liquidity dashboards average the big central banks as if they move markets equally. Here is how I weight the inputs so the composite tracks real transmission instead of an arbitrary sum.
A 30-day rolling Sharpe running from 0.64 down past -5.5 looks like a collapse in returns. Half of it can be the volatility denominator shrinking, and here is the arithmetic that separates the two.