Insights & Updates

How Wallet Labeling Works and How Often the Labels Are Wrong

A tour through how entity labels get attached to on-chain addresses, which ones are close to certain, and which are educated guesses dressed up as facts.

The Core-Satellite Approach to Crypto Investing

A stable BTC and ETH core, small satellite bets capped at 2 percent each, and a monthly rule that sweeps profits back into the core instead of pyramiding them into new positions.

Reading Entry and Current Price to See If You Are Late

Two adjacent columns on the whale feed tell you what fraction of a trade has already happened. One row showed an entry at 33 percent now trading at 100, which is a finished move wearing a green number.

Currency Carry Trades and Their Risk Profiles

Scoring Management Capital Allocation Over a Full Decade

Buyback timing, acquisition returns and organic reinvestment yield can each be reduced to a single comparable spread. Combined over a ten year window they produce one number per name that survives a review meeting better than any management assessment.

Understanding the Dollar Smile Theory

How AMM Price Impact Works and How to Calculate Your Real Swap Price

The quoted price impact on a swap is almost never your true cost. Here is the constant product math that sets your effective price and how to estimate it before you sign.

Hindsight Bias in Trade Reviews and How to Audit Yourself Honestly

Once you know how a trade ended, your memory of why you entered quietly rewrites itself. A timestamped thesis with a confidence number is the only honest audit trail.

Averaging Down on a Losing Trade and What the Math Actually Says

Averaging down lowers your breakeven, which feels like progress. What it actually does is trade a small certain loss for a smaller chance of a much bigger one.

A Rising Equity Curve With a Profit Factor Below One

The equity panel reads Net +396.07% while the profit factor tile two rows up reads 0.08. Both describe the same account. Here is what lifts a balance line without a winning trade, and how to separate the stories on this page.

Treasury Bond Trading for Macro Hedging