Macroeconomic
Risk Scorecard
A Snapshot of Macroeconomic Risk
Six recession methodologies. 30+ economic indicators.
Purpose of Macroeconomic Risk Scorecard (MRS)
The MRS tracks indicators that historically precede economic downturns. This risk management framework shows when market conditions are deteriorating.
7 X Recessionary Risk Forecasting Methods
- Blockcircle Methodology: Metrics used by the official recession-dating committee.
- GDP 2-Quarter Rule: Traditional technical definition.
- Yield Curve: Has preceded every US recession since 1955.
- Sahm Rule: Designed to trigger at recession onset.
- Credit Stress: Delinquency rates and credit conditions.
- Leading Indicators: Forward-looking composite.
- Composite: combination of above six methods
Using The GLS Risk/Opportunity Scores
Combined score below 40: conditions historically favorable. Above 60: elevated risk – consider tighter stops, reduced exposure, or increased cash.
The scorecard doesn’t predict recessions. It surfaces the data that historically preceded them.
Multi-timeframe View of Global Money Supply and Net Liquidity
A combination of established macroeconomic variables and custom quantitative ratios is used to assess potential run-ups or drawdowns with respect to speculative asset classes.
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