Market Analysis

I will explain what's happening in dead simple terms

The fact of the matter is: -> Strait of Hormuz is closed AND some of the world's largest oil refineries and water desalination plants are being destroyed

1) What does this impact? 1/5 of the worlds oil is transported throughout this water way, countless countries rely on that oil and water plants, without them they cannot survive for long
2) What does this impact? Oil prices and Gold prices sky rocket, freight insurance costs and rates explode, global economic production will suffer and lead to less economic output and productivity plummets.
3) What does this impact? Less production means less revenue which means less profit which means less risks taken and less business being made globally, risks are severe and would inevitably lead to macroeconomic shocks if it continues for longer than a month

@everyone

Important note

I can see a sudden investment narrative that some are speculating on, that suggests that crypto is doing well because the victims of war are panicking and all shifting capital to stablecoins and acquiring as much crypto as possible, onboarding billions and billions, but, the data does not YET back these claims

Ultimately, barely $1B has entered the crypto space since the illegal bombings began on Saturday (This war is technically illegal, under U.S. law, the president does not have the sole authority to start a war, actually only Congress has that authority, but this can be debated amongst legal experts)

What is the data actually telling me?

I can see a shift of existing capital from stablecoins towards BTC and barely towards altcoins

I will keep monitoring daily as I always do and keep you updated @everyone

BTC/USD targets as it broke through it's downtrend channel AND cleared the infamous $71,500 level we have been tracking closely are $74,000, $78,000, $84,000 and then clear shot to $94,000 to re-enter the golden range of $94,000-$106,000, but still far away from that being in consideration @everyone

The AMS flipped bullish on the 3D a few days ago which is tremendous, now we just need to make the AMS 1-Week closes bullish this Sunday @everyone

Confirmed short-term trend reversal with crypto alts as SOL/USD this morning as we re-attempted to break-out and we sustained it @everyone

Short-term Targets is $105-$113

SOL/USD was rejected upon the re-test of the breakout point which is no bueno, now we are stuck again in this downward channel

These next 30 minutes are critical to watch closely, if SOL/USD decisively closes above this 4-hour trend line, that would break the short-term to mid-term downtrend @everyone

The market is exploding because there is renewed optimism as the manufacturing industry is strong and the economy continues to grow for 16 straight months

Employment, supplier deliveries, and raw materials inventories are all contracting; so don't be misled by this

The Macroeconomic Risk Scorecard (MRS) shows you the comprehensive view, so you can understand exactly how we look macroeconomically @everyone

You need to be careful tomorrow with equities, because we were already piercing through below a key support beam, and if we close the 4-hour below it, then it could be a fairly straight path to < 6,700 in the S&P500

Declining momentum, outflow continues, derisking continues, macroeconomics bearish short-term @everyone

Long-term BTC and SOL have absolutely entered my target range, but just a few weeks early!

My BTC mid to long-term outlook is very simple, we are clearly heading towards the area I marked (and if we close below it, then it will be lights out for a bit) unless we have some type of unexpected positive news which temporarily catalyzes a run-up, which could absolutely happen if...

...there is a ceasefire signed and/or de-escalation with Iran AND a global effort to stablizing the region, which is unlikely to be sustained any time soon @everyone

So far, Gold has begun its move back up the past 24 hours

Rejection after rejection after rejection, so glad I closed my SOL LONG in good profit @everyone

Let's see how the S&P500 Futures market looks like in 4 hours when it opens, very curious to see how traditional equities and precious metals will price the potential escalation of the regional bombing in the MENA area

There is a clearly defined deterioration in the strength of the equities market, the confluence is fully aligned

You need to be careful here going in too heavily LONG biased.

Think twice about deploying all of the capital you have at this very moment. You will likely be in a good position if you exercise some patience and wait a little longer, for more clarity on exactly where we go from here

The data is crystal clear, weakening of the overall longer-term trend, smart money slowly exiting the risk on markets, US Fed and central banks preparing themselves by hoarding reserves and trying to derisk, momentum slowly waning week after week, price volatilty is shifting day to day

@everyone

If we don't strongly break above 7,000 on the SPX soon, then here is how I see things play out in the near future

It's very clear that SPX is struggling to break through 7,000 the last few weeks, it will absolutely, eventually break above it and push towards 9,000-10,000+, but that may take a while, so rather than waste time trying to predict exactly when that will happen, let's just make sure we stay above this trend around 6,800, otherwise we are in dangerous territory

@everyone

SOL/USD keeps getting rejected at this exact trend resistance

This is why I am focusing all of my energy on building, engineering, and deploying way beyond just crypto

There is an enormous world of opportunity OUTSIDE of crypto, such as in prediction markets, stocks, and precious metals which is why I have been posting about that

@everyone

The US Fed is draining liquidity and cash exiting markets as you see the Reverse Repo balance rising, both are bearish signals in the short-term, especially as you see the overnight lending rate being tight. All of this is summarized as while liquidity is stable, being able to access affordable cash is still difficult

@everyone

The 12-week forward adjusted Global Money Supply in the Global Liquidity Scorecard (GLS) is so useful to forecast the price of the S&P500 index

It's not exactly perfect, but it's very useful as a directional gauge of direction

I am still seeing the S&P500 being rejected at 7,000 over and over again, we need to break through before we can get any hope of a sustained rally, as simple as that

@everyone

Recession risks have dropped month over month and you can see the 6-month out forecast for recession risk visually here in the Macroeconomic Risk Scorecard (MRS)

Model 6 (M6) Leading Indicators is still moderately risky and our own Model 1 (M1) Blockcircle Labs is at 24, as the numbers that have come in were not as concerning as anticipated last month

@everyone