Market analysis, product updates, and trading strategies from the Blockcircle team.
The Kelly Criterion tells you the mathematically optimal fraction of your capital to risk on any given trade. Most traders would benefit from knowing why and how to use it.
Equities, futures, and crypto all pump the brakes on volatility differently. What happens to your resting and triggered orders when a halt or band hits, and how to plan for it before it does.
On-chain wallet analysis can group addresses belonging to the same entity, revealing how large players are positioning before major moves.
A written drawdown policy beats gut feel. Halve risk at 10 percent down, halt at 20, and use an equity-curve filter so scaling back up is a rule, not a mood.
The VIX measures equity volatility expectations, but its term structure contains signals relevant to crypto traders who understand cross-asset risk dynamics.
M2 money supply, the broadest measure of liquid money in the economy, has an empirically strong relationship with asset prices. The lead time can be months.
A copy-able way to check whether your backtest actually beats luck: shuffle, resample, randomize, and compare the real equity curve against a null distribution you built yourself.
Price is not the only signal in prediction markets. The depth of liquidity at various price levels tells you how confident the market really is.
Most crypto tokens have vesting schedules that release supply on known dates. These unlock events create selling pressure that is foreseeable and tradeable.
The PDT rule only bites margin stock accounts, which is why futures and crypto skate past it. What counts as a day trade, and the real ways to trade actively under 25k without getting flagged.
ATR trails, the chandelier exit, moving-average trails, and swing-structure stops all make the same tradeoff differently. Here is how each behaves in trends versus chop, and where to start your parameters.