Long-Term and Short-Term Holder Cost Basis as Support and Resistance
The 155-day holder split gives you two on-chain price levels that have acted as regime boundaries for years. Here is how to plot them and why they tend to hold.
Market analysis, product updates, and trading strategies from the Blockcircle team.
Your LP position can go up in dollars and still lose to just holding. That gap has a name, impermanent loss, and it is worth doing the actual arithmetic before you deposit rather than after.
The 155-day holder split gives you two on-chain price levels that have acted as regime boundaries for years. Here is how to plot them and why they tend to hold.
Why a correct address can still put your USDT on the wrong chain, where memo coins like XRP trip people up, and the pre-send checklist and test-send habit I run before every transfer.
Uniswap has moved trillions in volume and earned hundreds of millions in fees, and UNI holders have captured almost none of it. That gap between what a protocol earns and what its token is worth shows up everywhere in DeFi, and it changes how you should value a token before you buy it.
Every swap you send to a public mempool is visible to bots that can profit off your slippage before your trade even lands. Here is how sandwich attacks actually work, and the handful of settings that stop most of the damage.
Your resting bid fills most reliably when someone who knows more than you wants out. Here is how to measure that cost on your own trades and decide when passive entry is worth it.
Hard rugs drain the pool in one transaction. Soft rugs bleed you for a year. How both actually work, plus the five checks I run before buying anything small and new.
Funding, borrow, and re-entry fees quietly bleed a leveraged long over 30 days. Here is how to price that carry and decide when spot, dated futures, or options hold the same view cheaper.
A single tweet can move a token 10% before you finish reading it. Social data carries real alpha in crypto, but only if you can tell a genuine volume spike from noise, read past ironic crypto slang, and weight the accounts that actually move price. Here's how the metrics actually work in practice.
In crypto, the codebase basically is the product, which means the pace of development tells you where a protocol is headed months before price catches up. Here's how to read GitHub activity as a leading indicator without getting fooled by vanity commit counts.
A flat slippage number lies to you the moment you leave BTC. Here is how to build a depth-aware model that scales with order size and kills fake altcoin edges.
Routing price, whale, and news alerts into Telegram is the easy part. Keeping the channel readable is the actual work. Here is the filter architecture I use.