Why Prediction ตลาด Prices Are Not Quite Probabilities
A contract การเทรด at 60 cents does not exactly equal a 60% probability. Transaction costs, ความเสี่ยง aversion, and time value create subtle but important wedges.
A contract การเทรด at 60 cents does not exactly equal a 60% probability. Transaction costs, ความเสี่ยง aversion, and time value create subtle but important wedges.