Why Prediction Thi truong Prices Are Not Quite Probabilities
A contract Giao dich at 60 cents does not exactly equal a 60% probability. Transaction costs, Rui ro aversion, and time value create subtle but important wedges.
A contract Giao dich at 60 cents does not exactly equal a 60% probability. Transaction costs, Rui ro aversion, and time value create subtle but important wedges.