By the start of the 2028–2029 school year, will a majority of the 20 largest US public school districts be actively using an AI-powered tutoring system for a core subject?

Prediction market on metaculus. *This question by the non-profit*[ *Foresight Institute*](https://foresight.org/) *explores the Tool AI 2035 Scenario (A future shaped by advanced, but purposefully controllable, AI that is often narrow in scope):* > *A century’s worth of progress occurs in a decade by scaling and steering Tool AI... In 2025, the prospect of automation displacing work was often framed as a threat. By 2035, in much of the world, it is seen as a trade worth making. The combination of reduced hours, safer work, better health, and more time for human pursuits has made life better for most, though not all.* *** The "Tool AI" scenario envisions AI systems augmenting human teachers by providing personalized, scalable instruction across public education systems. AI tools like Khan Academy’s Khanmigo and other generative tutoring platforms have entered classrooms, but large-scale, district-wide adoption remains a major threshold for institutional change. However, adoption is not guaranteed. Past efforts like [**Ed**](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ed_\(chatbot\)), a chatbot introduced in Los Angeles schools, failed due to performance issues and privacy concerns. Recent developments suggest renewed momentum. In July 2025, the [New York Times reported that **Alpha School**](https://www.nytimes.com/2025/07/27/us/politics/ai-alpha-school-austin-texas.html), a Texas-based charter network, has integrated AI tutoring across core subjects. This question tracks whether AI-powered tutoring tools move from small pilots to institutional adoption. In the Tool AI scenario, education systems increasingly use AI tutors to personalize learning, support teachers, and improve student outcomes—especially in under-resourced areas. Widespread adoption by major school districts would signal the scenario’s vision of AI-enhanced education taking root. For more, visit:[ https://ai-pathways.existentialhope.com](https://ai-pathways.existentialhope.com)

Resolves: 9/16/2028.