Will Mary Peltola win the 2026 US Senate election in Alaska?

Prediction market on metaculus. The [2026 Alaska United States Senate election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_United_States_Senate_election_in_Alaska) is scheduled to take place on November 3, 2026, to elect one of Alaska's two US senators. There will be a single, nonpartisan primary held on August 18, 2026, from which the top four candidates will advance to the general election, which will be conducted via ranked-choice voting. Democrat [Mary Peltola](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mary_Peltola) made news when she won the [2022 special election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_Alaska%27s_at-large_congressional_district_special_election) to represent Alaska's at-large congressional district, becoming the first Democrat to win statewide office in the traditionally red state since 2008. Peltola retained her seat in the [2022](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_United_States_House_of_Representatives_election_in_Alaska) general election but lost it in [2024](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_United_States_House_of_Representatives_election_in_Alaska). In January 2026, Peltola [announced](https://www.axios.com/2026/01/12/peltola-alaska-senate-race) that she is running to unseat incumbent senator [Dan Sullivan](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dan_Sullivan_\(U.S._senator\)). [Polling](https://alaskasurveyresearch.com/wp-content/uploads/202526-Winter-Alaska-Survey-Report.pdf) suggests the race is currently neck and neck. The race [has been identified](https://apnews.com/article/democrats-senate-midterm-election-schumer-c5d2f79df1924907bcb80d26c96c3e96) as a key race for Democrats as they hope to retake the Senate in 2026.

Resolves: 11/30/2026.