Will Iceland pass a referendum to resume EU membership negotiations before 2028?

Prediction market on metaculus. Although Iceland applied to join the European Union (EU) in [2009](http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/europe/8153139.stm), the application was suspended in 2013. Since then there have been talks of resuming, but this time under the mandate of a public referendum. In 2026, the foreign minister of Iceland [announced](https://www.ruv.is/english/2026-01-09-referendum-on-eu-accession-talks-likely-in-spring-2027-463292) that a parliamentary resolution to hold a referendum would be presented during spring of 2026. If approved, it is expected that this referendum would be held in spring 2027. Public opinion on Icelandic relations with the EU has differed through the years, but currently appears to be more positive than negative. Polls on the topic are collated on [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iceland%E2%80%93European_Union_relations#Public_opinion).

Resolves: 1/2/2028.