Will Sam Hammond win his bet with John Luttig that US GDP growth will average above 5% from 2028 to 2033?

Prediction market on metaculus. [According to Samuel Hammond](https://x.com/hamandcheese/status/2008295622927909232), Senior Economist at [Foundation for American Innovation](https://www.thefai.org/), Hammond agreed to a bet with John Luttig, a partner at [Founders Fund](https://foundersfund.com/), on June 6, 2023, regarding economic growth in the United States. Hammond bets that real US GDP growth will average above 5% from 2028 to 2033 on a compound annual growth basis, while Luttig bets against. Hammond [recently outlined](/) his expectations of faster growth due to AI in the next decade, a position he has [held since around the time the bet was made](https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2023/05/08/manhattan-project-for-ai-safety-00095779). Luttig has written pieces from the [time of the bet](https://blog.johnluttig.com/p/hallucinations-in-ai) and [recently](https://blog.johnluttig.com/p/hypercapitalism-and-the-ai-talent) suggesting that AI is likely to continue advancing and could lead to significant changes, though has generally taken a more cautious and uncertain position around its effects and trajectory. No public statements by Luttig explicitly addressing the bet were identified.

Resolves: 5/1/2034.