Will India surpass Germany in GDP during 2026?

Prediction market on metaculus. In [2025](https://www.dw.com/en/india-overtakes-japan-as-4th-largest-economy-report-says/a-75341063), India passed Japan to become the fourth-largest economy in the world, behind only the US, China, and Germany. As of 2025, [India’s economy](https://www2.deloitte.com/us/en/insights/economy/asia-pacific/india-economic-outlook.html) continues to grow at a faster pace than [Germany’s](https://economy-finance.ec.europa.eu/economic-surveillance-eu-economies/germany/economic-forecast-germany_en), driven by a strong services sector, expanding industrial base, and rapid digital transformation. According to the International Monetary Fund (IMF) World Economic Outlook ([October 2025](https://www.imf.org/-/media/files/publications/weo/2025/october/english/text.pdf)): * India's nominal GDP in 2025 was estimated at \$4.51 trillion (in 2024, estimated at \$3.94 trillion) * Germany's nominal GDP in 2025 was estimated at \$5.33 trillion (in 2024, estimated at \$4.50 trillion)

Resolves: 1/1/2027.