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Prediction market on metaculus. Bitcoin (BTC) is the world's first and most widely adopted cryptocurrency. Its price has historically shown significant volatility, reaching an all-time high of \$126,198.07 on October 6, 2025 before falling (according to [CoinMarketCap](https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/bitcoin/)). The price of Bitcoin is influenced by multiple factors, including: * Institutional adoption (e.g., Bitcoin ETFs, corporate holdings) * Macroeconomic conditions (e.g., inflation, interest rates, monetary policies)  * Regulatory developments (e.g., government restrictions, taxation, legal status)  * Technological advancements (e.g., Layer 2 solutions, network upgrades) * Market sentiment and speculation Several financial institutions and analysts have provided forecasts for Bitcoin’s price: * [Bitwise](https://bitwiseinvestments.com/crypto-market-insights/the-year-ahead-10-crypto-predictions-for-2026), [Standard Charter and Bernstein](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-12-09/bitcoin-bulls-standard-chartered-bernstein-pare-back-most-ambitious-forecasts?embedded-checkout=true) predicts BTC to reach a new ATH in 2026. * [Forbes](https://www.forbes.com/sites/digital-assets/2025/12/16/serious-2026-3-trillion-crypto-collapse-fed-warning-issued-10000-bitcoin-price-predicted-as-crash-fears-swirl/) has warned of a possible huge crash in BTC price. Bitcoin has been [priced below \$100,000 since November 13, 2025](https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/bitcoin/historical-data/).
Resolves: 10/6/2026.