Will SpaceX successfully refuel a Starship in orbit during 2026?

Prediction market on metaculus. The [Starship Propellant Transfer Demonstration](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Starship_Propellant_Transfer_Demonstration) is a planned demonstration of the capacity to refuel a [Starship](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SpaceX_Starship_\(spacecraft\)) rocket using another while in orbit of Earth.  Scheduled to take place during mid-2026, the mission is critical for [Artemis Program](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Artemis_program) as the program requires refueling in order to reach the moon. SpaceX has had [mixed results](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Starship_launches) during past launches, with their most recent test, [Flight 11](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Starship_flight_test_11), successfully splashing down with only 1 partial failure.

Resolves: 1/1/2027.