Will Saudi Arabia and Israel agree to normalise diplomatic relations during 2026?

Prediction market on metaculus. Since the founding of Israel and the subsequent [Arab-Israeli wars](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Arab%E2%80%93Israeli_conflict), Israel and Saudi Arabia have had a tense relationship. During the Cold War, Saudi Arabia supported various Arab coalitions against Israel, and supported the Palestine in the Israel-Palestine conflict. During the 2010s, [relations began to improve](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Arab%E2%80%93Israeli_normalization), primarily due to Saudi Arabia's relationship with Iran, and efforts by the United States to align it's mutual allies. Following the outbreak [Israel-Gaza conflict](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gaza_war), Saudi Arabia's official position hardened once again, with a pause of normalisation talks and diplomatic support for Iran during [Israel-Iran strikes](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iran%E2%80%93Israel_war).

Resolves: 1/1/2027.