Will Reza Pahlavi visit Iran during 2026?

Prediction market on metaculus. [Reza Pahlavi](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Reza_Pahlavi), born in Tehran in 1960, is the eldest son of Mohammad Reza Pahlavi, the last Shah of Iran, who was overthrown in the 1979 Islamic Revolution. Pahlavi has lived in exile since the Revolution, which brought Ayatollah Khomeini to power and established the Islamic Republic. Khamenei, who succeeded Khomeini as Supreme Leader in 1989, held authority over all branches of government, the military, and the judiciary for over three decades. On February 28, 2026, the United States and Israel launched joint military strikes against Iran, resulting in his death. In the wake of Khamenei's killing, Iran faces deep uncertainty, with possible outcomes including further authoritarian consolidation, prolonged instability, and revolution. Pahlavi has advocated for a democratic transition in Iran, positioning himself as a prospective "[transitional leader](https://www.cbsnews.com/news/reza-pahlavi-future-of-iran-after-khamenei-death-60-minutes-transcript/)" for the country.

Resolves: 1/6/2027.