Will a triumphal arch be constructed and unveiled by the US government in Washington, D.C. before July 5, 2028?

Prediction market on metaculus. Washington, D.C. is the only major Western capital without a monumental arch. In February 2025, an article in [The American Mind](https://americanmind.org/salvo/washington-needs-an-arch/), an online publication of the Claremont Institute dedicated to the ideas that drive our political life, outlined: > The triumphal arch holds a very important place in the annals of Western architecture and urbanism... The monumental arch should be regarded as a universal entity—eminently appropriate, one would think, to a universal nation like these United States. On October 9, 2025 [photos](https://x.com/dannyctkemp/status/1976380882253668681?s=42) surfaced of an Oval Office mock-up of a triumphal arch that US President Donald J. Trump aims to build across the Potomac River from the Lincoln Memorial to celebrate America’s 250th birthday. On January 31, 2026, [The Washington Post](https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2026/01/31/trump-arch-memorial-circle/) reported: > Trump has considered smaller versions of the arch, including 165-foot-high and 123-foot-high designs he shared at a dinner last year. But he has favored the largest option, arguing that its sheer size would impress visitors to Washington, and that “250 for 250” makes the most sense, the people said. > Any construction plan for the arch would probably need to go through several review panels and potentially require the sign-off of Congress, given laws around constructing monuments in Washington. The US administration deems the arch as [a top domestic priority and wants it finished by July 4, 2028](https://wheninyourstate.com/washington/trump-declares-his-triumphal-arch-the-nations-top-domestic-priority/), but the funding and construction challenges remain.

Resolves: 7/6/2028.