Will there be a non-test nuclear detonation in Iran before 2027?

Prediction market on metaculus. On February 28, 2026, the United States and Israel [launched a coordinated military campaign](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_Iran_war) against Iran, targeting its nuclear program, ballistic missile infrastructure, and senior leadership, including Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, who was killed in the opening strikes. The strikes came closely on the heels of [nuclear negotiations between the US and Iran](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2025%E2%80%932026_Iran%E2%80%93United_States_negotiations#2026_negotiations) breaking down, and more broadly following years of escalating tension and following [June 2025 strikes by Israel and the US against Iran](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Twelve-Day_War), as well as [widespread domestic protests](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2025%E2%80%932026_Iranian_protests) against the Iranian regime.

Resolves: 1/1/2027.