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Prediction market on metaculus. Kharg Island is an island off the coast of Iran and plays an important role in Iran's oil exports. [The island handles around 90 percent of Iran’s crude oil exports, with approximately 950 million barrels passing through its facilities each year. ](https://www.newarab.com/news/why-kharg-island-matters-irans-strategic-gulf-oil-island) Since the start of the 2026 Iran War and [closure of the Strait of Hormuz](https://www.reuters.com/graphics/IRAN-CRISIS/OIL-LNG/mopaokxlypa/), [this island has been seen as a potential military target.](https://nypost.com/2026/03/10/us-news/why-the-iran-war-may-come-down-to-the-control-of-one-tiny-island/) On March 13, 2026, it was reported by President Trump that [the US military bombed the island.](https://thehill.com/homenews/administration/5783850-trump-bombs-iran-kharg-island/)
Resolves: 1/1/2027.