Will the United States attempt to occupy or blockade Kharg Island during 2026?

Prediction market on metaculus. Kharg Island is an island off the coast of Iran and plays an important role in Iran's oil exports. [The island handles around 90 percent of Iran’s crude oil exports, with approximately 950 million barrels passing through its facilities each year. ](https://www.newarab.com/news/why-kharg-island-matters-irans-strategic-gulf-oil-island) Since the start of the 2026 Iran War and [closure of the Strait of Hormuz](https://www.reuters.com/graphics/IRAN-CRISIS/OIL-LNG/mopaokxlypa/), [this island has been seen as a potential military target.](https://nypost.com/2026/03/10/us-news/why-the-iran-war-may-come-down-to-the-control-of-one-tiny-island/) On March 13, 2026, it was reported by President Trump that [the US military bombed the island.](https://thehill.com/homenews/administration/5783850-trump-bombs-iran-kharg-island/)

Resolves: 1/1/2027.