Will Israel conduct a ground invasion of Iran before 2027?

Prediction market on metaculus. Haaretz (March 19, 2026): [Netanyahu Says a Revolution in Iran Requires a Ground Offensive](https://www.haaretz.com/israel-news/israel-security/2026-03-19/ty-article/.premium/netanyahu-says-a-revolution-in-iran-requires-a-ground-offensive/0000019d-07ba-d088-a5fd-b7bb26a20000) > Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said on Thursday that a ground offensive would be required to bring about the collapse of the Iranian regime. > Speaking to members of the foreign press corps, the prime minister said that while Israel and the United States can achieve "a lot of things from the air," a "ground component" is imperative to create the conditions for regime change. Netanyahu did not detail what such a ground offensive would look like. For base rates, on the one hand since its founding in 1948 Israel has conducted the following ground invasions that would count had there been a Metaculus question about it at the time:  * 1948: Jordan (Transjordan) in the 1948 [Arab-Israeli War](https://www.britannica.com/event/1948-Arab-Israeli-War), Israel took parts of East Jerusalem and the West Bank * 1956: Egypt in the [Suez Crisis](https://history.state.gov/milestones/1953-1960/suez), when Israel invaded Egypt’s Sinai Peninsula and captured Gaza, Rafah, and al-ʿArīsh. * 1967: Egypt during the [Six-Day War](https://www.britannica.com/event/Six-Day-War), Israeli ground forces took the Sinai Peninsula and Gaza Strip from Egypt. * 1967: Jordan/West Bank during the Six-Day War * 1967: Syria during the Six-Day War, Israeli forces took the Golan Heights. * 1973: Egypt in the [Yom Kippur War](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Yom_Kippur_War), Israeli forces crossed the Suez Canal. * 1973: Syria in the Yom Kippur War, when Israeli troops reached the outskirts of Damascus. * 1978: Lebanon, when Israel invaded southern Lebanon in[ Operation Litani](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1978_South_Lebanon_conflict). * 1982: Lebanon, when Israel invaded and reached the outskirts of Beirut in the[ 1982 Lebanon War.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1982_Lebanon_War) * 2002: West Bank and Gaza as part of during[ Operation Defensive Shield](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operation_Defensive_Shield) * 2006: Lebanon in the [2006 Lebanon War](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2006_Lebanon_War) * 2023: Gaza in the [Gaza War](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gaza_war) * 2024: Lebanon in Israel's 2024 [invasion](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_Israeli_invasion_of_Lebanon) of the country. On the other hand, although Israel and the United States have a close relationship (see history [here](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Israel%E2%80%93United_States_relations)), the IDF has never deployed ground troops in US campaigns such as [Vietnam](https://webdoc.sub.gwdg.de/ebook/p/2005/CMH_2/www.army.mil/cmh-pg/books/vietnam/allied/), [Iraq](https://tile.loc.gov/storage-services/master/gdc/gdcebookspublic/20/23/69/31/56/2023693156/2023693156.pdf) or [Afghanistan](https://www.nato.int/en/what-we-do/operations-and-missions/isafs-mission-in-afghanistan-2001-2014). 

Resolves: 1/1/2027.