Will the United States attack Cuba before 2027?

Prediction market on metaculus. Hostilities between the United States and Cuba have spanned more than six decades. [This history](https://eu.usatoday.com/story/news/world/2026/02/25/united-states-cuba-relationship-trump-castro-obama/88867688007/) led to the current US President to escalate tensions: > After Maduro's capture in Venezuela, the [Trump administration](https://www.whitehouse.gov/presidential-actions/2026/01/addressing-threats-to-the-united-states-by-the-government-of-cuba/) in January declared a national emergency over Cuba, calling the country "an unusual and extraordinary threat" to U.S. national security. The United States has cut off the flow of Venezuelan oil to Cuba and threatened to impose tariffs on any country supplying it with fuel. As of March 16, 2026, [the US President has continued to threaten Cuba](https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/trump-says-he-thinks-he-will-have-honor-taking-cuba-2026-03-16/): > U.S. President Donald Trump escalated his rhetoric against Cuba on Monday, saying ‌he expected to have the "honor" of "taking Cuba in some form" and that "I can do anything I want" with the neighboring country.  > The threatening statements come even as Cuba and the United States have [opened talks](https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/cuban-president-under-pressure-economic-crisis-trump-address-media-2026-03-13/) aimed at improving their largely adverse relations, which have reached one of their most contentious moments in the ​67 years since Fidel Castro overthrew what had been a close U.S. ally. > "I do believe I'll be ... having the honor of taking Cuba. That's a big honor. Taking Cuba in some form," Trump told reporters as ⁠the island faces an unprecedented economic crisis, exacerbated by an oil blockade the U.S. imposed after capturing former Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro.

Resolves: 1/5/2027.