Will United Airlines and American Airlines announce a definitive merger agreement before January 1, 2027?

Prediction market on metaculus. CBS News April 14, 2026: [United CEO floated idea of United-American Airlines merger, sources say](https://www.cbsnews.com/news/united-ceo-floats-idea-united-american-airlines-merger-sources/) > United CEO Scott Kirby floated the idea to Trump administration officials of United merging with American Airlines, according to sources familiar with the situation. > That conversation with officials is surfacing now after Transportation Secretary Sean Duffy hinted the Trump administration was open to further consolidation in the aviation industry, but United would have a challenging road to show such a combination would improve competition or not raise costs for flyers. > Such a combination would not be out of line with comments Kirby has made in the past about being better able to compete against other global airlines. > Kirby told CBS News in a September 2025 interview that about two thirds of the long-haul international seats to and from the United States are foreign-flag carriers, even though only 40% of the customers on airplanes are foreign citizens.

Resolves: 1/1/2027.