Will the US and China jointly announce a new bilateral trade agreement in 2026?

Prediction market on metaculus. The US and China have one of the world’s largest trading relationships but do not have a comprehensive bilateral free trade agreement. While strategic competition has defined the narrative in the recent relationship, the 2020 [“Phase One” agreement](https://ustr.gov/phase-one) signed by the first Trump Administration set out a limited agreement that could pave the way for future agreements. US President Donald J. Trump is [set to visit Beijing for a summit in May](https://www.reuters.com/world/china/trump-visit-china-may-14-15-white-house-says-2026-03-25/) and there are talks about the US hosting President Xi Jinping later in 2026.

Resolves: 1/31/2027.