Will any organization or state launch a $500 billion project aimed at scaling robot manufacturing before 2031?

Prediction market on metaculus. The [Stargate Project](https://openai.com/fr-FR/index/announcing-the-stargate-project/) was an AI infrastructure program, with a \$500B commitment announced by OpenAI, SoftBank, and Oracle in January 2025 to build out American AI compute capacity. No equivalent program exists yet for robotics manufacturing, but the competitive pressure is building fast.  China's National Development and Reform Commission announced a [state-backed venture fund](https://ifr.org/ifr-press-releases/news/china-to-invest-1-trillion-yuan-in-robotics-and-high-tech-industries) expected to attract nearly 1 trillion yuan (\~\$138B) in capital for robotics, AI, and cutting-edge innovation over 20 years, and the [Chinese government allocated over \$20B in subsidies](https://chinapower.csis.org/china-industrial-robots/) to its robotics industry in late 2024 and early 2025 alone through grants, loans, tax credits, and state-backed VC funding.  The US has no announced robotics manufacturing project, though its AI Action Plan explicitly names autonomous robots as a strategic priority.

Resolves: 1/1/2031.