Will Lt Gen Abdel Fattah al-Burhan and Lt Gen Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo "Hemedti" be publicly confirmed to have met in person at any point during 2026?

Prediction market on metaculus. Lieutenant General Abdel Fattah al-Burhan, head of Sudan's Sovereign Council and SAF chief, and Lieutenant General Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo "Hemedti", commander of the Rapid Support Forces (RSF), have not been publicly confirmed to have met in person since shortly before the Sudan war began on 15 April 2023. Multiple mediation attempts have failed to bring them together. A planned [Djibouti meeting (December 2023 / January 2024) collapsed when Hemedti pulled out](https://www.theeastafrican.co.ke/tea/rest-of-africa/sudan-warring-chiefs-burhan-hemedti-fail-to-meet-4476188). Hemedti attended the [IGAD Kampala summit in January 2024](https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2024/1/20/sudan-suspends-membership-in-igad-regional-bloc) while Burhan boycotted, prompting Sudan to suspend its IGAD membership in protest. Ethiopian PM Abiy Ahmed reportedly attempted mediation in mid-2024, without success. As of early 2026, the dominant mediation track is the "Quad" (US, Saudi Arabia, UAE, Egypt), which issued a joint roadmap on 12 September 2025 calling for a 3-month humanitarian truce, a permanent ceasefire, and a 9-month transition - analysed in detail by [International Crisis Group](https://www.crisisgroup.org/africa/sudan-united-states-egypt-saudi-arabia-united-arab-emirates/all-eyes-quad-how-us-and-its-partners-can-push-peace-sudan). Burhan publicly rejected the roadmap on 18 September 2025, and Sudan formally rejected the framework at the UN Security Council on 24 February 2026. Burhan has repeatedly stated there will be "no negotiation" while RSF retains arms; Hemedti has signalled readiness, including a [unilateral 3-month humanitarian truce announcement on 24 November 2025](https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2025/11/24/rsf-announces-unilateral-three-month-humanitarian-truce-in-sudan), which Burhan rejected the day before as "the worst yet". Both leaders have travelled in 2025-2026 but never to a venue with the other. Burhan has been based in Port Sudan, with diplomatic visits to Saudi Arabia, Eritrea, Oman, and Egypt - including a Jeddah meeting with Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman on 20 April 2026 and Sultan Haitham of Oman on 21 April 2026. Hemedti, after roughly two years out of public view, reappeared in West Darfur (Geneina area) in June 2025 and [met Ugandan President Yoweri Museveni in Entebbe on 20 February 2026](https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/2/22/sudan-condemns-rsf-chiefs-visit-to-uganda-as-minimising-human-values), drawing condemnation from Sudan's foreign ministry. For ongoing context, see [International Crisis Group's Sudan coverage](https://www.crisisgroup.org/africa/horn-africa/sudan), the [UN Security Council Report Sudan Monthly Forecast](https://www.securitycouncilreport.org/monthly-forecast/), and [Sudan Tribune](https://sudantribune.com).

Resolves: 1/15/2027.