Will there be a nationwide anti-government uprising in Russia between September 20 and November 1, 2026?

Prediction market on metaculus. Russia is scheduled to hold State Duma elections in September 2026. Recent reporting has highlighted several possible sources of public strain in Russia ahead of the election, including economic weakness, internet restrictions, criticism of local officials’ handling of disasters and agricultural problems, and rare public dissent from figures previously associated with the pro-Kremlin camp. For example, [The Washington Post has reported on growing public despair in Russia](https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2026/04/26/russia-public-despair-war-ukraine/), and Reuters has reported that [Putin criticized top economic officials after Russia’s economy contracted by 1.8% in the first two months of 2026](https://www.reuters.com/business/finance/russias-putin-scolds-top-officials-economic-contraction-2026-04-15/) and that [senior officials had offered him proposals to restore economic growth after the contraction](https://www.reuters.com/business/finance/top-officials-have-offered-putin-ideas-economic-growth-after-contraction-kremlin-2026-04-16/). In April 2026, the Kremlin publicly acknowledged a viral video by celebrity blogger Victoria Bonya, who warned that officials were concealing serious domestic problems from President Putin and that public frustration could eventually erupt. Russian-language outlets have covered [Bonya’s appeal to President Putin](https://novayagazeta.eu/articles/2026/04/14/mnogogo-vy-ne-znaete), [the public reaction to that appeal](https://www.currenttime.tv/a/inflyuenserka-viktoriya-bonya-poblagodarila-kreml/33733782.html), and [Ilya Remeslo’s public break with pro-Kremlin positions](https://meduza.io/feature/2026/03/19/bloger-i-donoschik-ilya-remeslo-vystupivshiy-protiv-putina-okazalsya-v-psihiatricheskoy-bolnitse). Reuters has also reported that [Communist Party leader Gennady Zyuganov warned the State Duma](https://www.reuters.com/world/leader-russias-communists-warns-parliament-risk-revolution-due-faltering-economy-2026-04-22/) of the risk of a 1917-style revolution if economic conditions continue to deteriorate.

Resolves: 11/3/2026.