Will the United States support Argentine claims of sovereignty over the Malvinas/Falkland Islands before 2030?

Prediction market on metaculus. The Falkland Islands (known in Argentina as the Malvinas) are a British Overseas Territory located in the South Atlantic. Sovereignty over the islands has been disputed between the United Kingdom and Argentina for nearly two centuries. The dispute escalated into armed conflict during the Falklands War in 1982, after Argentine forces invaded the islands. The United Kingdom regained control after a 10-week conflict.  The United States has historically maintained a position broadly aligned with the UK, particularly during the 1982 war, while at times encouraging diplomatic dialogue between the parties rather than taking a formal sovereignty stance. *** Recent geopolitical developments have introduced uncertainty. [Reports in 2026](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cz78x703lrvo) suggest that internal discussions within the US government included the possibility of reassessing its position on longstanding territorial disputes, including the Falklands, in response to tensions with European allies. Argentina continues to assert its claim through diplomatic channels, while the UK maintains that the principle of self-determination applies, citing referendums in which Falkland Islanders have overwhelmingly supported remaining a British territory.

Resolves: 12/31/2029.