Will the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield exceed 7% for at least 30 consecutive days before 2030?

Prediction market on metaculus. The United States federal debt has expanded rapidly in recent decades, driven by structural deficits, higher interest costs, demographic pressures, military expenditures, and repeated fiscal stimulus measures. At the same time, the U.S. Treasury market remains the foundation of the global financial system and the U.S. dollar continues to function as the world’s primary reserve currency. Some economists and market participants argue that persistently elevated debt levels may eventually force the United States into a period of [higher inflation](https://budgetlab.yale.edu/research/inflationary-risks-rising-federal-deficits-and-debt), aggressive monetary intervention, or structurally higher interest rates in order to sustain debt financing. Others argue that continued global demand for U.S. Treasuries and the reserve status of the dollar make such a scenario [unlikely in the foreseeable future](https://www.capitalgroup.com/ria/insights/articles/how-might-kevin-warsh-steer-fed.html). The yield on the U.S. 10-year Treasury note is widely regarded as a benchmark indicator of long-term market confidence in U.S. fiscal sustainability, inflation expectations, and sovereign credit conditions.

Resolves: 1/30/2030.