Will Donald Trump declare a national emergency related to election integrity before November 3, 2026?

Prediction market on metaculus. Under the [National Emergencies Act](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/National_Emergencies_Act), the United States President is formally empowered to declare a national emergency when a state of emergency exists. Presidents have used this power [in a variety of contexts](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_national_emergencies_in_the_United_States), and many different national emergencies are ongoing at any given time. In his first term, President Donald Trump [declared thirteen national emergencies](https://www.brennancenter.org/our-work/research-reports/declared-national-emergencies-under-national-emergencies-act). As of May 2026, in his second term, he has already declared eleven more. He has also taken executive action with respect to elections. On March 25, 2025, he issued [Executive Order 14,248](https://www.federalregister.gov/documents/2025/03/28/2025-05523/preserving-and-protecting-the-integrity-of-american-elections), attempting to tighten restrictions on voter registration and to limit the counting of mail-in ballots after Election Day. Then on March 31, 2026, he issued [Executive Order 14,399](https://www.federalregister.gov/documents/2026/04/03/2026-06601/ensuring-citizenship-verification-and-integrity-in-federal-elections), attempting to tighten restrictions on who may submit mail-in ballots. Meanwhile, a draft executive order that would declare a national emergency relating to foreign interference in U.S. elections has [reportedly circulated since 2025](https://www.democracydocket.com/news-alerts/exclusive-read-the-draft-executive-emergency-order-for-trump-to-take-control-of-elections/), but no such order has yet been released.

Resolves: 11/3/2026.