Will Spain hold a general election before May 23, 2027?

Prediction market on metaculus. Following the snap general elections held on July 23, 2023, Pedro Sánchez managed to be invested as Prime Minister of Spain in November of that same year, forming a coalition government supported by various pacts with nationalist and pro-independence parties. Since then, the legislature has been marked by an extremely difficult parliamentary arithmetic. The government relies on a fragile majority that requires constant negotiation with multiple divergent political groups to pass any legislation. Compounding this instability, the executive has been unable to pass new General State Budgets, forcing the rollover of the 2023 budgets into subsequent years. Furthermore, the political climate has been heavily strained by multiple corruption scandals and judicial indictments (*imputaciones*) affecting figures close to the administration and the ruling party. As of mid-2026, these mounting institutional pressures and legislative gridlocks have fueled intense media debate about a possible early election. The legal limit for the end of the current legislature is August 2027. On the other hand, the Organic Law of the General Electoral System (LOREG) establishes that municipal elections in Spain must be held on the fourth Sunday of May every four years, making the next scheduled date May 23, 2027. Traditionally, general and municipal elections have not overlapped to prevent the local agenda from being diluted, although the calendar allows for both to coincide on a "super Sunday."

Resolves: 5/24/2027.