Will Prabowo Subianto be re-elected in the 2029 Indonesian election?

Prediction market on metaculus. The President of Indonesia is allowed to serve for [a maximum of two terms](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/President_of_Indonesia). [Prabowo Subianto](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Prabowo_Subianto), the incumbent, was [first elected](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_Indonesian_presidential_election) in the last election, in 2024. This means he is allowed to run again in 2029, which he and his party has [announced their intention to do exactly that](https://en.tempo.co/read/1975563/gerindra-party-prabowo-to-run-for-second-term-in-2029-elections). Indonesia uses [a modified Top-Two Runoff system](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2029_Indonesian_presidential_election), where a candidate must obtain atleast 50 percent of the overall vote, plus 20 percent of votes within atleast half of the provinces of Indonesia, to immediately win in​ the first round. Otherwise, the top two candidates will go to a runoff.

Resolves: 6/30/2029.