Will OpenAI either have a valuation of less than $200bn USD or have filed for bankruptcy before January 1, 2028?

Prediction market on metaculus. Recent business decisions and public communications from OpenAI seem to indicate a shift in business model ([advertising "as last resort"](https://www.businessinsider.com/chatgpt-ads-openai-2026-1), Department of War deal, [device](https://arstechnica.com/ai/2025/10/openai-jony-ive-struggle-with-technical-details-on-secretive-new-ai-gadget/), [discussion of bailout](https://prospect.org/2025/11/07/openai-maneuvering-for-government-bailout/), [alleged failed training runs](https://officechai.com/ai/openai-hasnt-completed-a-successful-full-scale-pretraining-run-since-gpt-4o-in-may-2024-says-semianalysis/), questions over whether it is still at the edge). OpenAI also [missed key revenue and user targets](https://www.wsj.com/tech/ai/openai-misses-key-revenue-user-targets-in-high-stakes-sprint-toward-ipo-94a95273?) according to the Wall Street Journal. However, many investors are still [going long](https://marketwise.com/investing/openai-852-billion-valuation-ipo-plans/) on OpenAI pre-IPO, with a valuation at \$852 billion on April 2, 2026. 

Resolves: 1/5/2028.