Will Nueva Pescanova's octopus farm gain regulatory approval in the Canary Islands before June 2027?

Prediction market on metaculus. [Nueva Pescanova](https://www.nuevapescanova.com/en/company/) is a Spanish multinational company specializing in seafood production, processing, and distribution. In 2019, the company [stated](https://www.nuevapescanova.com/en/2019/07/18/researchers-from-pescanova-achieve-to-close-the-reproduction-cycle-of-octopus-in-aquaculture/) it understood how to raise octopuses in captivity, that it could successfully hatch octopus eggs, raise them to adulthood, and breed them for another generation. In 2023, the nonprofit Eurogroup for Animals obtained Nueva Pescanova’s plans for its first octopus farm on the Canary Islands, which was first reported by [the BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-64814781). According to the company it is committed to “maintaining biodiversity”, “protecting the ecosystem”, and “promoting the circular economy”, however the environmental report submitted by the seafood company for the proposed farm [was rejected](https://thefishsite.com/articles/opposition-continues-for-canary-islands-octopus-farm) by the Canary Islands government over concerns of a negative impact to the environment. Eurogroup for Animals and Compassion in World Farming [reported](https://faunalytics.org/proposed-octopus-farm-fails-environmental-impact-assessment/) on the significant risks including pollution, public health concerns and unsustainable resource needs. As of May 2026, there have been no further updates on the regulatory status of the proposed octopus farm.

Resolves: 7/20/2027.