Will plant-based meat and seafood reach 10% of US retail packaged meat dollar sales before 2031?

Prediction market on metaculus. According to the [Good Food Institute](https://gfi.org/resource/analyzing-plant-based-meat-and-seafood-sales/) (GFI), in 2025 retail sales of plant-based meat and seafood in the US were \$1.04 billion.  Since 2017, sales have been:  | Year | Plant-Based Meat & Seafood Retail Sales | YoY Growth | Citation | | ---- | --------------------------------------- | ---------- | --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- | | 2017 | \$682M | — | [Source](https://gfi.org/resource/analyzing-plant-based-meat-and-seafood-sales/) | | 2018 | \$804M | +17.9% | [Source](https://gfi.org/wp-content/uploads/2022/03/2021-U.S.-retail-market-insights_Plant-based-foods-GFI.pdf) | | 2019 | \$957M | +19.0% | [Source](https://gfi.org/wp-content/uploads/2022/03/2021-U.S.-retail-market-insights_Plant-based-foods-GFI.pdf) | | 2020 | \$1.4B | +46.3% | [Source](https://gfi.org/wp-content/uploads/2022/03/2021-U.S.-retail-market-insights_Plant-based-foods-GFI.pdf) | | 2021 | \$1.4B | \~0.0% | [Source](https://gfi.org/wp-content/uploads/2022/03/2021-U.S.-retail-market-insights_Plant-based-foods-GFI.pdf) | | 2022 | \$1.43B | +2.1% | [Source](https://gfi.org/wp-content/uploads/2025/04/GFI24005_SO-SPINS-SPINS08-FINAL-250404-1910x1080.png) | | 2023 | \$1.26B | −11.9% | [Source](https://gfi.org/wp-content/uploads/2025/04/GFI24005_SO-SPINS-SPINS08-FINAL-250404-1910x1080.png) | | 2024 | \$1.17B | −7.1% | [Source](https://gfi.org/wp-content/uploads/2025/04/GFI24005_SO-SPINS-SPINS08-FINAL-250404-1910x1080.png) | | 2025 | \$1.04B | −11.1% | [Source](https://gfi.org/resource/analyzing-plant-based-meat-and-seafood-sales/) | Though the sector saw rapid growth from 2017 through the pandemic year of 2020, growth has stalled and even gone into reverse since then.  According to [GFI](https://gfi.org/resource/analyzing-plant-based-meat-and-seafood-sales/), this decline is caused by several factors: 1) a persistent price gap in the market, with plant-based meat and seafood costing more than its conventional counterparts, with consumers citing price as their top barrier; 2) consumer dissatisfaction about taste; and 3) a negative spiral in which retailers are shrinking shelf space devoted to plant-based meat, which in turn leads to more sales declines.  On the other hand, there are also signs of life such as: 1) an 8% unit sales growth in the whole cut meat alternative [segment](https://gfi.org/resource/insights-and-opportunities-in-whole-cut-meat-alternatives/); 2) a rise in popularity of flavored products (e.g., Asian, Mexican, spicy); and 3) a new focus on health. This final point is backed by [GFI research](https://gfi.org/resource/how-health-perceptions-shape-plant-based-meat-choices/#key-findings), incorporating validated sales data with a consumer survey: * Consumers who perceive plant-based meat to deliver better on key health attributes spend more on it. * Qualitatively, the impact of this can be seen by looking at products that experienced sales growth in 2025. For example, this includes products that make differentiated claims around low saturated fat, have heart health certifications, or have shorter-than-average ingredient lists. * Other identified opportunities include [protein](https://thegoodfoodinstitute.substack.com/p/a-better-protein-package-how-plant), [fiber](https://thegoodfoodinstitute.substack.com/p/fiber-is-taking-center-stageand-plant?utm_campaign=reaction\&utm_medium=email\&utm_source=substack\&utm_content=post), and having no antibiotics or hormones.

Resolves: 1/1/2031.