Will FEWS NET classify any area of Sudan as experiencing Famine before 2027?

Prediction market on metaculus. Sudan has been in civil war between the Sudanese Armed Forces and the Rapid Support Forces since April 2023, producing what is widely regarded as the world's largest active displacement and one of its most severe hunger crises.   [FEWS NET](https://fews.net/east-africa/sudan) (Famine Early Warning Systems Network) is a food security early warning system originally established by USAID in 1985, now run by a network of U.S. government and technical partner organizations. It monitors 30+ food-insecure countries and produces regular Outlooks using a scale of Phase 1 (Minimal) through Phase 5 (Catastrophe/Famine). In 2025, FEWS NET's operations were disrupted by the dismantling of USAID and associated funding cuts, taking the network offline for a period before it resumed publishing. FEWS NET's own narrative has fluctuated: its December 2025 Sudan update stated Famine (IPC Phase 5) was "expected to persist amid escalating conflict and tightening sieges," while its February and March 2026 updates stated that Famine *thresholds* were "no longer met" in previously affected areas, describing instead a "credible risk of Famine" in South Kordofan, North Kordofan, North Darfur, and parts of Greater Darfur; while still noting "Emergency outcomes with populations in Catastrophe are ongoing" in specific hotspots.

Resolves: 12/31/2026.