Will the United States attack Oman before 2027?

Prediction market on metaculus. On August 17, 2026, it was reported that [US President Trump spoke to Fox News](https://www.foxnews.com/world/trump-confirms-irgc-backchannel-calls-irans-white-flag-surrender) about the ongoing challenges negotiating with Iran in the ongoing war surrounding the Strait of Hormuz. > If Oman gets in the way, we’ll bomb the s--- out of them. This is not the first time that the US President has threatened the Gulf nation. Back in May 2026, it was reported that [he warned Oman](https://edition.cnn.com/2026/05/27/world/live-news/iran-war-us-news#cmpoc4ge900003b6u9s3zjw35) not to interfere in the US negotiations with Iran.  > Oman will behave just like everybody else or we’ll have to blow ‘em up. Despite [long-standing economic and military US-Oman ties](https://www.aspistrategist.org.au/how-to-lose-friends-and-alienate-allies-trumps-approach-to-oman/), Oman's intermediary role in the US-Israel war with Iran has strained recent relations. 

Resolves: 1/1/2027.