Will the AfD control the chancellorship before 2031?

Prediction market on metaculus. Following the snap federal election on February 23, 2025, Friedrich Merz of the center-right CDU was elected Chancellor of Germany on May 6, 2025, leading a CDU/CSU–SPD coalition. In that election, the AfD emerged as the second-largest party nationally, receiving 20.8% of the vote and securing 152 seats in the 630-seat Bundestag. The next German federal election must take place on or before March 25, 2029. While the AfD has achieved historic high turnouts and pluralities in regional elections—such as in Saxony-Anhalt in September 2026—all mainstream political parties have maintained a *brandmauer* (firewall) policy, refusing to enter into governing coalitions with the AfD at both the federal and state levels. Since the Chancellor is elected by a majority of the Bundestag, the AfD's path to the chancellorship currently depends on either breaking this firewall or winning an outright parliamentary majority.

Resolves: 1/1/2031.