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Prediction market on polymarket_us. This market will settle to Yes if the rate of real U.S. GDP growth for 2026 is above 3.4%. Outcome sourced from the Bureau of Economic Analysis. The rate of real U.S. GDP growth for 2026 refers to the comparison between the annual level of GDP for 2025 and the annual level of GDP for 2026. Settlement is based on the Q4 Advance Estimate GDP release published by the BEA, currently scheduled for early 2027. Any subsequent revisions to this figure will not be considered for settlement purposes. If the figure is not published on the scheduled date, the first officially published figure for the rate of real U.S. GDP growth in 2026 will be used. If no qualifying GDP figure is released within three months of the Advance Estimate GDP scheduled release date, this market will resolve based on data from the most recent previous release with available data.
Resolves: 2/13/2027.